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how will complexity effect collectibility?

S soonerbjjMember
As I reflect on the future of the collectible car market I have to wonder how the relative complexity and need for proprietary diagnostic tools will effect the collectibility of modern cars. Will the average enthusiast be able to maintain and restore these cars, or will costly service put them out of reach?

Twenty years from now who can service or restore that 2001 ZO6? Or worse, what'll it cost to freshen your 2011 ZR1?

One can get into a 1986 Ferrari 328 for a very reasonable sum. Anyone who has done their homework will know the costs that come with ownership. A service is going to cost you several grand but you don't have to look too far to find a capable shop and the costs are somewhat proportional to the value of the car. A quarter century from now, will we be able to say the same for the 430?

At the other end of the spectrum, in 2036 will your average shadetree mechanic be able to tear apart a '11 Mustang GT in the garage? The complexity of onboard computers and requirement for proprietary diagnostic tools already puts today's car beyond the reach of the vast majority of enthusiasts. What will those folks do when their car's technology is 2 decades obsolete and even the Ford dealerships won't have the right reader?

Planned obsolescence and value engineering drive our consumer economy and are manifest in everything from our cell phones to laptops to cars. How will this effect future usability and collectibility of current generation cars?

These concerns certainly played into my decision to buy a Pantera. Not that we don't have our own set of challenges, but this seems a rather depressing state for today's new car.
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lastpushbuttonlastpushbuttonMember
Years ago they made the complex big screen engine diagnotic machines. Now anybody can plug a reader into a port under the dash. There used to me manuals that you would use to look up the codes. Now it tells you what you need to know on the screen. FI used to be some mystery, now the cars tune themselves. I think the common knowldege will make it esier for the next generation. I worried about the GPS colission avoidance systems that are going to be required by law putting my body shop out of business! Bill 1362
robertvegasrobertvegasMember
Great post.

I think it will be easy to work on a Z06 twenty years from now for two reasons:

1. Technology will be so more advanced in 20 years that tuning the computer on your car, or any other electronic issue, won't be considered much more difficult than working on your own carburetor now. I hang at a shop that mostly works on Nissan Zs, Gs and GT-Rs and discovered this isn't as complicated as I thought. The car throws a code that lets them know a specific thing is wrong. They go to the computer that has a step-by-step procedure for testing, fixing or replacing whatever is wrong. That, combined with their experience, allows them to quickly solve problems without the trial and error that we often go through. Eventually we will all get a code reader and the specialized software the mechanics use on our laptops. I think the only reason we don't have that software now is because the creators are currently overcharging shops for it. That will end.

2. More importantly, I think you will be able to continue to work on these complicated cars because car guys will make it happen. We are insane like that.
D detom (Guest)
20 years from now there will be only two kinds of people instead of the hundreds of economic classes that exist even today. There will be the dirt poor economic slaves who will represent 99+ percent of the population, and there will be the uber-rich mega-trillionaires with very little in between. The rich will have thousands of collector cars that their slaves will tend with the utmost of care. So yes cars will continue to be collected like baseball cards while the slave class will be forced to maintain them or perish. I don't think any of us will be amongst the owners of any automobile as we will probably ride in slave trucks or such, transported wherever the masters wish us to toil for our daily food rations.
hustlerhustlerMember
Such a positive outlook DeTom Smiler. I've sort of run into this problem. My grandmother has a 94 Lincoln continental in almost mint shape. She just rarely drove it. Not exactly a collector, but I have run into a problem. The ECU's diag port isn't working. Dealer couldn't do anything either. I tried finding a CA emissions ECU across the country and could not find one. So I'm kind of screwed. Most of these cars are being junked for complete scrap. They aren't even stripping the cars in some cases for the valuable parts. So then what, I re-wire the whole car for an aftermarket ECU? Not cost effective for some cars. The one advantage of our mostly mechanical cars is that you can always fabricate replacement parts.

Electronically controlled transmissions etc. etc. are going to change a lot of things.
deniscdeniscCaretaker of 8MA1244 '70 Euro Mangusta DRIVE THEM, THEY WERE MEANT TO BE DRIVEN, IF YOU WANT TO LOOK AT ONE, BUY A POSTER!
I think there will be other challenges. Up to the mid 80's many dealers still had obsolete parts in their inventories. Today, better management techniques and technology have almost eliminated wrongfully ordered parts and stail inventory, average dealers now high turn inventories. Also, the manufacturers have sold-off the rights and moulds to 'vintage' parts. So unless you chose a mid/high volume collectible car parts are going to be more expensive than the final vehicle value. Thirdly the volume of plastic parts will greatly increase the cost of restoration. Finally, good trades are getting very hard to find.

So no longer easy, cheap hobby, that we currently have for mass produced cars.
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