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China has a lot of things going on. China has been giving away it's steel and barganing for cheap energy. They are running out of both. No only is their energy usage on a very fast upswing, they are running out of cheap energy for which they will soon be paying more for.

They are also running out of steel and importing more which is soon to be driving up the price. They don't have a labor shortage, they are just cheap. They just don't want to pay them. The more successful they are, the more people will want to be paid.

At present there are 2 things going on. Extremely large advancements in energy usage, and productivity and wealth for the individual. (Not that they are all wealthy) but more and more cars being bought by the comon person every day. They are in an increasing economic wakeing up over there.

The second thing that is happening is their products will soon begin to be more expensive because of all of this. This may slow the expected boom some.
03 April 2006
China's labor shortage
Important piece on the New York Times' front page:

Persistent labor shortages at hundreds of Chinese factories have led experts to conclude that the economy is undergoing a profound change that will ripple through the global market for manufactured goods.

The shortage of workers is pushing up wages and swelling the ranks of the country's middle class, and it could make Chinese-made products less of a bargain worldwide. International manufacturers are already talking about moving factories to lower-cost countries like Vietnam.

....why because the workers are getting smarter and moving to the US .

....soon they will be looking to buy cheaper fuel .. ETHANOL .. lets build a big STILL ... hey Detom ... can you help us. LOL
States like Califorina have been using Oxiganiated (alky enriched) fuel in winter time for years. The results are similar, most people report 10-20% reduced mpg. By summer when they change blends, the mpg bumps back up to normal. Luck States like Nevada that are stuck using the blends out of Cal, see the same results.

So E85 is great from reduction from overseas oil but it will result in overall less power and more overall fuel consumption for the same power output (not 1:1). Most "blend" cars report the same results, reduced mpg and power but the ability to use a fuel that is less costly to produce.

Not a solution to expect to see on historic engines due the need to use computers to calculate the fuel mix and adjust accordingly. Sorry, us Iron folks, need to stick to the high test stuff for the long haul. Thank God we all made it through the scare of reduced leaded fuels more or less undamaged. Talk about public scares of needing to "harden" valve seats.
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Originally posted by jwr2968:
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Nope, but I am a hillbilly. I live where Jed Clampet came from.

Jed struck oil.He became famous and moved to Hollywood.Any chance of that happening to you?

Sure, the odds are only one in 250 million. It could happen any day. More likely to get killed by lightning though.
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Originally posted by ROVERLTD:
... E85 is great from reduction from overseas oil but it will result in overall less power and more overall fuel consumption for the same power output (not 1:1)....


Rover, the stoichiometric ratio for ethanol is different than that for gasoline requiring more fuel and less air, hence the reduced fuel economy. And even with the increased fuel consumption, the net btu's are still lower than that for 100% gasoline, hence the reduction in bhp.

Even so, I would gladly accept lower bhp and the expense to convert the Pantera, in the name of reducing our nations reliance on foreign fuel, cleaner air, and improving the US economy.

your friend on the DTBB
I don't see any of the issues as major issues nor nothing to stop us. I do think it would be nice if we still had the choice to use conventional fuels for older cars but converting them wouldn't be that big of a deal either. If we did it everyone would figure it out.

The main thing would be to use it for everyday drivers. Building ethanol plants is far cheaper then building oil refineries. Our capacity is increasing slowly but if we as a country decided to go forward with it it would drop the overall price quie a bit; which is at present time close to regular fuel price anyway.

I am off today. Back to wrenching!
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I haven't heard anything from the Canadian contingent on this. They have been very quite about it?


As a Brit & Canadian immigrant living in the US and on top of that a Canadian Oil Company employee I followed this post closely, but refrained from replying at various points not wanting to create a huge political debate. But what the hell, most of you guys should be big enough you can take a few home truths...meant in the best possible way.

The notion that the US can be independent from the rest of the World in a Global economy, whether it is oil or any other commodity just emphasizes the naivety of the majority of the American public. The notion that it can strong-arm and bully its way through life is equally antiquated. I lived in Australia when the US slapped 30% duties on steel imports, because the US industry was non-competitive. As a Canadian immigrant I deride the 27% duties the US slapped on lumber in a similar fashion to hold up its own failing industry. There are numerous other examples of self protectionism and the underlying question is why is that so…because the US is non-competitive in today’s global economy, as evidenced by the tirade of US companies now having offshore service and production centers. There is a natural shift to doing business where it’s more competitive and as they say “you can’t have your cake and eat it”.

In terms of oil what drives the price of oil and hence recent jumps in gas pump prices, despite no real shortage of oil?

1. A government that mandates ethanol replacement in gasoline when its country doesn’t have sufficient capacity for ethanol production. (Do you all know it expends more energy to produce ethanol than its energy content? It is also not a ‘renewable’ energy source in the use of that term.)
2. A president threatening to invade or bomb yet another one of the leading oil producers of the World.
3. A society that historically has consumed energy as though there’s no tomorrow, well my friends tomorrow will come! This is perpetuated by auto manufacturers and the American public who consider ‘bigger is better’. Europeans drive smaller cars and measure gas consumption in miles/gallon not the typical gallons/mile of many US vehicles.

Furthermore, do you realize the price of gas hasn’t actually changed as much as you might think…so what has changed you ask? The World’s perception of the US and hence the US$, which unfortunately is what oil is sold in. The greenback has about the same value as a sheet of toilet paper in today’s World market. Take a look at oil prices in Euros or any other major currency and you’ll see what I mean.

I also fear the worst when the word ‘Terrorism’ frequents posts and here it has been assimilated with oil and hence implies Middle Eastern countries and oil is funding terrorism. It seems that the American public has been brainwashed into believing that the whole World is a festering snake pit of terrorists, when in fact it is a minority of extremists, most of whom a) already actually seem to be living in the US and/or b) have previously been allies and trained or funded by the US. That leads directly into another aspect of terrorism and security; …ah yes screen and re-screen every non-American entering the US through airports, sea ports but how many thousands of illegals walk across from Mexico everyday, are they really all Mexicans??

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President Bush just made a statement that he his willing to temporarily remove the Federal EPA Mandates. He can do that by Executive Order. He is waiting for feedback on clean air vs. energy before he does it.

Ah yes the old “f**k the iceberg, full steam ahead" attitude, well we all know wheer the Titanic is.

In closing; The US is doing a good job of isolating itself from the rest of the World, if it can truly survive on its own, then good luck to it. I fear not and that the truth will be it will fall backwards as other countries advance, if it does need allies…when picking them consider this; Canada (and in particular Alberta) has a larger oil reserve than Saudi Arabia. But my plea as one Pantera owner to others is that you won’t let dear Mr. Bush invade Canada! I guarantee that we too don’t have WMD, just a couple small warships and dodgy sub we got used from the Brits, despite what Cheney and Rumsfeld may have you believe at some point.
Ok here is what I found in my notes.

1 therm of natural gas 100,000 Btu
1 gallon of (LPG) 95,475 Btu
1 gallon of kerosene 135,000 Btu
1 gallon of diesel fuel oil 138,690 Btu
1 gallon of gasoline 125,000 Btu
1 gallon of ethanol 84,400 Btu
1 gallon of methanol 62,800 Btu
1 gallon of gasohol(10% ethanol, 90% gasoline) 120,000 Btu

So basically the blend at the pumps 90/10 ethanol gas is equal to regular gasoline and a Natural gas and a LPG powered vehicle is equal in BTU's but missing the octane ??? Thats where I'm at a loss for words and need some help.
quote:
Natural gas and a LPG powered vehicle is equal in BTU's but missing the octane

Ron the BTU measure is for total energy and the octane has more to do with the temperature it takes to ignbite the fuel. Natural gas and butane have an ignition temp of around 800 degrees F. longer hydrocarbon chains take a higher heat energy to release their energy. Like take diesel fuel for instance. They typicaly run compresion ratios of 18 or up. Gasoline would ignite long before it saw that compresion. Compresion causes heat.
Joules it doesn't help if I agree with you, and I do tend to. I still have to live with these monkeys and the fact is they don't know what the truth is.

"They drink the sand because in the true abcense of leadership they don't know any better". They have to be told not to drink it.

They can afford an $80,000 Hummer but complain if the gas is $.25 higher then they WANT to pay.
This is a delecate subject because the US is the largest privately armed country in the world.
...uhho, was that the sound of a lock and load? Oh geeze. Alberta could be just another state but who wants it, it's too cold?

Randy Newman's song "Deplomacy" comes to mind at times like this, ..."boom goes London, boom Paris, more room for you, more room for me, we'll save Australia, don't wanna' hurt no kangaroos, we'll make an all American amusement park there..."
Sorry, I thought it was fitting. I know, I don't sing well. (It is a joke you know?)

When I asked about the Canadian contingent, I just meant HOW MUCH IS GAS AT THE PUMP THERE? Geeze loosen up! I don't need to be reminded how stupid I am, sorry, I mean naieve.

And sad to say, even if I agree with you, that when push comes to shove and I gotta pick sides, that isn't even a question. If we're going down, we're all goin' down together, or said another way, better be outt'a Gunsmoke by dark or somebody ain't never leavin'. (It's not my quote and "they" aren't kiding).

Would I push the button over oil, probably not. I would if I had to drink the sand though.

It's a tough town to play to, tough crowd.
Doug I was thinking the same thing. Everyone picks on the US of A. But compared to Rome we are a bunch of really nice guys. How can people forget so easily we still have a nuclear arsenal big enough to extinguish all life on this planet? I mean the lucky ones will die in the blasts. Radiation poisioning is a terrible way to die. It is like slowly burning to death. I would think they would try lots harder not to piss us off.
Joules all I can say is your entitled to your opinion and I respect that.

Your an employee in an industry that is the route of the problem. They create enviromental problems, make filty profits, and lie everyday about what the real problem is. The oil companys dont want to see alternate fuel. WHY ? LOL

One thing to think about, just always listen to both sides, because big business like oil co's have the money to brain wash their employees. Its something that just came to mind with the very hard line you speak.

On the last note I'll tell you a story. A friend working for the big cigarette co states they want to put a cell site behind his house in the cemetary and he is pissed and going to the town meeting to fight it. I said why, he said it causes cancer, I said doesnt cigarettes the company you get paid by, have a pension with and feed your kids with. Those profits cause cancer ?? The poeple in the cemetary are all dead. LOL he stopped and looked !

Anyway read your post and see all the issues are the route of the oil companys and big money.

Ron
Hey Ron,

Yeah, I knew I was playing 'Devils Advocate' when I wrote it and it may have come across as hard line, but it wasn't meant as derogatory in any way.

You are right we all have to take a deep look within at times. I worked in the mining industry all my life, no one ever wants a mine near them, but they all want the products produced from mining. You can't escape those products they are evryday items and in many cases the alternatives simply aren't out there or competitive cost wise. As always $$$ is the driver, oil companies too, they are virtually all publicly traded companies, driven by market responses. If you can't beat them you just have to join them, get in on the action and buy some shares.

My share options are doing nicely at present, you didn't hear me complaining about the price of gas Big Grin

Julian
Actualy the problem is not that americans pay too much, the problem is we pay too little. THe only way to curb demand in a free market is to raise the price. What we really need, desperately, is to put a five dollar per gallon tax on gasoline. THe proceeds of which must be used to construct synfuel plants and coal gasification plants.
Joules,

Exactly, my intentions are strickly driven by the technical side of this ethanol as my inquiries are to understand the market and the use and truthfully I see a possible market for my company in the construction of these facilties should they start construction. At present I have a warehouse full of rigging welding and a reserve of manpower waiting on unemployment. This is the ideal time for a couple of these to start construction. Yes my knowledge in metal since we use them everyday also effects my investments.

I think this applies here in the US .. at least it does to me.

The old Irish proverb I think says it best:

"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; The courage to change the things I can; and the wisdom to know the difference".

Do you agree ?
Joules, good post.

Assuming things are increasing in value about 7% a year, then prices double about every 10 years. In the early 70's I was paying about 40 cents per gallon of regular. So by the early 80's it's 80 cents, by the early 90's it's $1.60, and by the early 2000's it's supposed to be $3.20 just to stay even. However...

Since the oil companies own the reserves, it is proper for them to make more profit as the price per barrel goes up. What I don't understand is how this can have such a dramatic effect on the cost of a gallon of gas. It seems to me that downstream refining is where prices are getting so out of hand. The oil companies say prices are driven by supply and demand. Demand appears relatively inelastic to me which means that it's the supply side that is being manipulated.

As to solving the demand issue, I wish we'd quit looking for the "silver bullet" and start doing things that are cost effective and doable now. Looking for the silver bullet just allows the politicians to put off really having to do anything.

What can be done now, you ask? Diesel technology, stricter mileage requirements to include ALL trucks and SUVs, better roads to eliminate traffic jams which waste a lot of gas, not to mention time, and more hybrid technology. Can you think of others?

Speaking of hybrid technology, did you read the story in Automobile Mag about Bert Rutan. He says the current crop of hybrids have it all wrong. He advocates using plug in battery power first with hybrid technology as backup. The reasoning is that most car usage is short trips where battery is just fine. Best of all they plug in at night and use what is basically free, low demand electricity to recharge. With diesel/gas backup, they can also be used beyond the practical range of a battery only car, and can use the diesel to power the car when it is driving at a steady rate. eg, for interstate travel, etc. Diesel/gas is cost effective in that situation. Now we're talking 100 mpg, not the 30-50 mpg the hybrids get now.

Jeff
6559
Ron,

On a serious note, if as you say you have the equipment and guys sitting around with oil & gas experience then you need to get yourself up to Ft McMurray and explore the current opportunities. These are endless with new projects and expansions to existing facilities underway amidst a labor shortage. Wages are the highest in Canada and guys are flying in and out from Newfoundland! For you if you are moving the $$ back to the US then the exchange adds to your favor.

Julian
Joules,

My business sits in a geographic area of upstate new york which would be a home run for the proposed Enthanol Plants. At present there are many Pharmecutical Manufacturing and Cosmetic Co;s which need similiar process piping as you know. I had ventured beyond the NY Area in past years and it wasnt profitable. My roots are here with regard to my resources and as of this evening I read a trade publication that justifies what your saying. The largest boom in our industry since WW2 is only a short time away. The US and Canada United Association Pipe Trades is expecting the largest Labor shortage in history. I sit as Treasurer for an Apprenticeship Program. I pridicted and convinced them to take in young people 10 times of what they did in the past. They started about 5 years ago. We are getting young men and women with 2 & 4 year college switching careers because of the money and freedom of not sitting in an office all day. But we are getting the most intelegent construction personel the trades have ever seen. This cycle has changed from the 80's and 90's where it was the dumping ground for kids who didnt go to college.

So THANKS for the heads up .. but my home is here and this is idle time to collect and reorganize and wait. Its also PANTERA TIME.

Ron
Jeff,

have I understood your comment correct, that you believe demand for oil is inelastic, meaning constant?

May I point out that the consumption of oil in China is escalating at an unbelievable rate. It will not take too long before China consumes more oil than the US. To put this another way, demand in China will soon double the worlds demand for oil prodcution.

Consumption in the US has also increased dramatically, as we have evolved from 1 and 2 car families, to 3 and 4 car families, as the fuel economy of the cars we purchase declines (due to the sales of big SUVs), as the length of the average commute increases, and as the population escalates.

your friend on the DTBB
quote:
In closing; The US is doing a good job of isolating itself from the rest of the World, if it can truly survive on its own, then good luck to it. I fear not and that the truth will be it will fall backwards as other countries advance, if it does need allies…when picking them consider this; Canada (and in particular Alberta) has a larger oil reserve than Saudi Arabia. But my plea as one Pantera owner to others is that you won’t let dear Mr. Bush invade Canada! I guarantee that we too don’t have WMD, just a couple small warships and dodgy sub we got used from the Brits, despite what Cheney and Rumsfeld may have you believe at some point

Joules,There's a lot of truth in what you say.Just heard Mr. Bush say on TV how strong our economy is and how good everything is.That f...ing ass has not a clue,nor any of his yes men,as to the reality of this country predicament that the future holds.We have weak leadership at this time in the US.Until we get him out,not much will change.But we,as a whole need to take some of the blame.It's not all his fought.He just epitomizes some of our American attitudes.
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